Sunstone

A very determined group of researchers has found an example of the previously legendary Viking sunstone used for navigating while the sun was obscured by clouds or below the horizon.  The best and most concise article I've seen is this one at The Economist.  If there were a Nobel Prize for Archeology, this team would win it.

YAP

There are three teams with swear words in their name: Arsenal, Scunthorpe and Manchester Fucking United #notbitterhonest
Stephen Fry on Twitter today.

Finally, The Last Iran War Post

      A B-52  Photo:US Air Force

This article in the Guardian is the last nail in the Iran War coffin.  The UK's Attorney General has a legal opinion that use of UK bases for a pre-emptive attack on Iran could be illegal.

The war that I've always said wouldn't happen is now dead.  The US Air Force cannot carry out an extended campaign against Iran without UK bases.  They need UK bases for B52s and Diego Garcia for B2s.  Of course the US could still use their bases in the US and Guam, but that radically reduces the tonnage they can drop.  And use of those bases makes for some difficult overflight problems. The US Navy can still attack from aircraft carriers and the Air Force can use regional bases, but they can't stop the Iranians with conventional weapons.  Without strategic bombing, the only way for the US to destroy the Iranian program is with nuclear weapons.  And that's not on.

You can stick a fork in it now.  We will still hear lots about it, because the general public does not grasp the operational constraints.  But it will be just talk.  This game is over.

UPDATE

I should have said that this kind of finding means, in my opinion, that Britain will not go to war over the idea of Iranian nuclear weapons.   This is a policy document pretending to be a legal document.  It moves Britain closer to the overall European position. 

Yap

But I, that am not shaped for sportive tricks,
Nor made to court an amorous looking-glass;
I, that am rudely stamp'd, and want love's majesty
To strut before a wanton ambling nymph;
I, that am curtail'd of this fair proportion,
Cheated of feature by dissembling nature,
Deformed, unfinish'd, sent before my time
Into this breathing world, scarce half made up,
And that so lamely and unfashionable
That dogs bark at me as I halt by them;
Why, I, in this weak piping time of peace,
Have no delight to pass away the time,
Unless to spy my shadow in the sun
And descant on mine own deformity:
And therefore, since I cannot prove a lover,
To entertain these fair well-spoken days,
I am determined to prove a villain
And hate the idle pleasures of these days.
William Shakespeare, Richard III

Richard III Found

After 500 years, people are still fascinated by Richard III.  The mysteries of his reign and death still intrigue, and Shakespear's play keeps the story current.  Indeed there are energetic partisans on both sides of the Richard was a good/bad king debate.  His hold on the imagination remains strong enough that there has not been another English king named Richard since.

Despite the two recent developments in the story of Richard, he remains an enigma.  The likely discovery of his body, and the true site of the battle at Bosworth field (found in 2010) can tell us little new about his deeds, motives or psychology.

Its true he was slandered by the Tudors, anxious to demonize Richard in order to strengthen their shaky legitimacy.  But that doesn't mean he wasn't a bad man.  He did have his nephews declared bastards, he did execute William Hastings, he did persecute the Woodvilles and most importantly, he did allow harm to come to his nephews who were under his care and protection.   Ultimately, his claim to the throne required his nephews out of the picture.  His legitimacy is thus tied to their deaths in the Tower (I view the bodies found in 1674 as probably the princes).

But the main thing about Richard is Shakespear's play.  Without that, he would be as one dimensional as any other English Medieval king.  Which image is more compelling, the stern man in the portait above, or the skulking, charming villain embodied by Olivier below?

But Shakespeare wrote for the ages, not simply the Tudors.  He used Richard to present a view of how power is acquired, used and kept.  In particular, how Richard's talents for getting power by guile were overwhelmed by his inability to wield it effectively or defend it.  Shakespeare shows that without legitimacy, the crown is an empty vehicle.  And Richard, because of his sins, could not hold it.

At this remove, it is clear that Richard was the last Medieval king of England.  The dynastic squabbles that had consumed England for 200 years came to an end with him, the ultimate product of that environment.  Although there were rebellions and pretenders aplenty thereafter, none ever came close to derailing a sitting English monarch.  The only two removed subsequently (Charles 1 and James II) lost their thrones due to politics, not dynastic disputes. 

So you have to separate Richard the man from Richard the Shakespeare character.  Because Shakespeare wasn't writing history.  His Richard was a caricature of the real king, a vehicle for Shakespeare's moral tale.  And the more compelling his caricature, the more relevant the morality.  In any case, the historical mysteries that fascinate are those who's answers lie tantalizingly out of reach.  Where just one more bit is needed to complete an otherwise confusing puzzle.  After 500 years, I think that's the way Richard will remain.  Just out of reach.

==========
BTW, the Olivier movie is terrific.  I've written about it before.

==========
UPDATE!
February 4, 2013.
Scientists confirm the body was Richard's. 

Why Bobbies Don't Carry Guns

     With a look like that, he doesn't need a firearm.  London, 1984

There is an interesting article at the BBC about why British Police don't carry firearms.  Among other interesting statistics in the article, a 2006 survey found 82% of officers don't want them.

The Syrian Powder Keg

     Aleppo is starting to look like someone's Stalingrad.  Photo by: Niklas Meltio

Things are not going well for Bashar Assad.  His army had pushed the rebels out of Damascus and seemed to be forcing a decisive battle in Aleppo on their terms.  Given the Army's heavy weapons and air assets, it should have been a walkover. But more than a month later, the battle for Aleppo continues.  In addition, after having been driven out of Damascus last month, the rebels are not only back, but seem to have shot down a helicopter.  The Syrian Armed Forces are clearly unable to win this war.  The rebels, on the other hand, have taken everything the government has thrown at them and keep advancing.

The usual scenario in these circumstances is a grinding war until the rebels get the upper hand and the government disintegrates as the players rush for the exits.  Without foreign intervention, that's what will happen here.  Unfortunately, the regional players have upped the stakes in this conflict. And the chemical weapons are a wild card inviting intervention from the US, France, Britain and possibly Russia. 

While we have all been paying attention to Israeli threats against Iran and the Egyptian revolution, a regional war has been brewing to the East.  The US invasion of Iraq upset the regional status quo by shoving Iraq (majority Shia) into Iran's outstretched arms.  Iran gained a straight line of allies all the way to the Mediterranean (Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah).

The Saudis thus feel out-flanked by Iran and threatened by Iranian nukes.  They also felt threatened by Shia demonstrations in the North of the Kingdom, the oil part, and were forced (by their reckoning) to stifle a Shia revolution in Bahrain.  So the emerging power blocks are sectarian; Sunni vs. Shia.  Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Iran's clients on one side, the USA, Turkey, Jordan and the Gulf Arabs on the other. Egypt is a wild card and Israel irrelevant.

The war in Syria is acting like a magnifying glass to focus all these issues in one place.  Iran and the Saudis both lack the military for a direct conflict. One invading and/or conquering the other is not possible.  So the temptation to fight by proxy in Syria is attractive.  But very, very dangerous.  Expect an international crisis at some point this fall.

A Crisis of Capitalism

 
 The Wages of Sin, Apparently

Among the scandals that have surfaced since the US sub-prime market came apart in 2008, the currently unraveling LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offer Rate) fixing conspiracy is the granddaddy of them all.  The interest rates for inter-bank lending in London might seem remote, but LIBOR influences every credit instrument a consumer can buy.  Mortgages, car loans, credit card rates, home equity loans, almost everything with an interest rate is based partly on LIBOR.  So if banks were fixing LIBOR, you are paying for it.

The Economist, not exactly a bunch of Marxists, said that the scandal exposes “the rotten heart of finance”.  They posit that the resulting lawsuits could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in penalties for the banks involved.  Some of the remaining too big to fail banks may fail as a result, leading to more bailouts.  And the list of banks being investigated is breathtaking; Barclays (who co-operated and got hammered in the press), Royal Bank of Scotland, Citi, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, UBS and Deutche Bank.  That’s just for starters.  Even the Bank of Fucking England, and possibly the US Fed were involved.  Investigations are going on in the US, UK, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, and the EU.

LIBOR is supposed to be the shining example of what an efficient market can do.  Fixing the rate should result in market imbalances that attract arbitrage which re-balances the market.  Clearly, this did not happen.  Probably because too many people were in on the game, probably because the imbalances were being concealed as well.  Rather than being the proof of market efficiency (the key advantage of a capitalist system), the scandal proves that there can be no efficient markets without regulation and policing.  Pure Capitalism doesn’t work, just like pure Marxism didn’t work.  Both, it seems, devolved into utterly corrupt, unaccountable gangs of thieves that enriched themselves at everyone else’s expense.