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Swans, ice and fog on Humber Bay.

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Nathan Phillips Square this snowy evening.

Campaign Round-Up

Whoa.  What a campaign.  I worked on Chrystia Freeland's by-election in Toronto Centre and it was an amazing experience.  Or set of experiences.  I got to photograph Justin Trudeau from close up, sat through Friday prayers at a mosque, watched a Deputy Returning Officer get fired at 4PM on election day, listen to an NDP poll worker's racist rant about non-english speakers, talked about artillery with Lt. Gen. (ret) Andrew Leslie, watched Kevin Clarke go ballistic, met dozens of fascinating people, had tons of energy, got to be a part of the game, and to top it off, a fantastic party after we won.

It was a good time.  The biggest thing was that they asked me to take photos.  I forgot that I could do people pictures.  Its been such a long time.  But I knew exactly what to do, and despite being very rusty, managed to do it.  Here are some of the best photos.  Some are duplicates of earlier posts, but I did all these over again as I gained practice at Lightroom and Photoshop.

 Justin Trudeau

 Chrystia Freeland

 Justin Trudeau canvassing on Parliament Street.

 Linda McQuaig, John Deverell, Chrystia Freeland at the UofT debate.

 Paul Martin canvassing in Yorkville.

 John Tory moderating the debate at Jarvis Collegiate.

 Chrystia at the Jarvis debate.

 Chrystia's handlers Rebecca and Ben fiercely concentrating during a scrum at the Jarvis debate.

 Bob Rae, Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne at a campaign rally.

 Justin Trudeau at the same rally.

 And again with Kathleen Wynne.

Senator Art Eggleton watching the early results.

Chrystia during her victory speech.

Bob Rae

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Paul Martin light:

Paul Martin dark:

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Candidates at the U of T debate, Nov 16.

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Got to take a photo of Justin Trudeau while working on Chrystia Freeland's Toronto Center Campaign.  He cleans up real nice.

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Liberty, as we all know, cannot flourish in a country that is permanently on a war footing, or even a near war footing. Permanent crisis justifies permanent control of everybody and everything by the agencies of central government.
Aldous Huxley

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Chrystia Freeland at her Toronto Center election headquarters, Oct 27, 2013

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Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. 
André Gide

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Window abstracts at 6 King Street East.

All my photos are on Flickr

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As everyone in this room knows, it has become a right of passage for aspiring leaders and prime ministers to promise Senate reform - on their way to the top.  

The promises are usually made in Western Canada.  

And these statements of intent are usually warmly received by party activists, editorial writers and ordinary people.

But once they are elected, Senate reform quickly falls to the bottom of the Government's agenda.


Stephen Harper, September 2006, from his own website.

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the issue is not a matter of perception … you can not claim an expense you did not incur. That is not right, that is not proper, and that will not be tolerated in this party.
Prime Minister Harper's complete non denial.

Harper's Bad Week

   
Unbelievably, Mike Duffy is a hero.  Two days ago, he looked like the archetypical insider crook.  Today he is the only known case of someone publicly defying Stephen Harper and living to tell the tail.  That's bad for business.  Queue the counter-attack.  Not that anything besides monumentally stupid incompetence by the PMO could have restored Duffy's reputation to the point where a counter-attack is necessary or viable.

The worst possible outcome of this scandal is that it could get attached to the Prime Minister personally.  His party is known for enthusiastic betrayal when the leader shows some blood.  Like The Man Who Would Be King.  And the suspension might have passed last week, but its gone now.  Total defeat for the PMO and tar all over the PM.

The most fascinating thing is that the only story having a ring of truth is Duffy's. That he's a self-serving crook makes his story even more credible.  He knows what he's talking about.  It looks like the $90,000 was a straightforward bribe, the Prime Minister knew about it, and probably approved it.  And who created this Duffy monster?  Stephen Harper, in one of his more transparently cynical moves as PM.  His cunning, paranoia and vindictiveness have finally come back to stab him deeper than any enemy could have.

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Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself.
Mark Twain

There is no distinctly American criminal class, except Congress.
Mark Twain

A Rebellion In The House

    Dan Tague

I finally figured out what the Republicans are up to with the debt showdown.  Republican Senator Tom Coburn said last week: “I would dispel the rumor that is going around that you hear on every newscast, that if we don’t raise the debt ceiling, we will default on our debt. We won’t. We’ll continue to pay our interest.”  The Government will be able to do that with their tax revenues, so the story goes.

By refusing to let the US Government borrow any more money, the Tea Party faction can force Obama to shut down everything except the military, social security, and interest payments on the debt.  No money for things they don't like, especially Obamacare.  When everyone wakes up on Friday to realize the world didn't end, Obama will have to negotiate, and the GOP can raise the debt ceiling for 90 days on Monday morning.  Crisis over.  The Tea Party faction will have pulled off a political masterstroke and finished the Reagan revolution.

Or so I am guessing.  Its taking brinksmanship into previously unknown territory, but its brinkmanship all the same.

If my guess is right, then the tea party types will do their damnedest to prevent any vote at all until they get what they want.  If they don't allow a vote, then Boehner can't fold and compromise with the Democrats.  With party discipline, nobody, not Obama, not the Senate, not the Courts, can stop them.  The House GOP will effectively run the country until at least January 2015.

For their ploy to work, Obama has to be able to pay for at least Social Security the military and interest on the national debt out of taxes and not be able to use any executive tricks to keep borrowing.  If the Tea Party faction are wrong about this, there will be an economic meltdown and a political showdown.  Nobody can say what would happen, but it wouldn't be good.

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6 King Street East, Toronto

All my photos are on Flickr

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Never march by flank in front of an army in position. This principle is absolute.
Napoleon Bonaparte 

The only exception to this rule is well known for being an exception to this rule.  Lee had Stonewall Jackson do this at Chancellorsville.  Knowing his enemy, Joesph Hooker, Lee knew he would get away with it.  And he did.

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Climbing the zipline ride at the CNE, 2013

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I hope Putin has taken adequate protections. Now that he is a Russian journalist his life may be in grave danger!
Gary Kasparov on Putin's NYT op-ed

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Stars And Stripes, Harrisburg

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Sherfy Barn, Emmitsburg Pike, Gettysburg

Insanity Wolf Nails It

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It's when the 'international community' expresses 'concern' about your 'situation' that your situation is well and truly fucked. 
Michael D. Weiss

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The Devil's Den, Gettysburg

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Headstones, Evergreen Cemetery, Getttysburg

Meme Watch

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Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.
Ulysses S. Grant- the only time he ever lost his temper on the battlefield, after hearing once too often about Lee's ability.

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Names of Pennsylvania Civil War soldiers, Pennsylvania Monument, Cemetery Ridge, Gettysburg

Meme Watch

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Pennsylvania Monument and mist on Cemetery Ridge, viewed from the Emmitsburg Pike just south of Gettysburg.  The Southerners briefly captured this part of the ridge late on the 2nd day.  Click on the image for big. 

A Red Line in Syria

     Photo: Al Jazeera

It was beginning to look like the Syrian civil war would end in a permanent stalemate.  The Economist predicted the country would be functionally be divided in 3.  The Alawites taking the belt from Damascus to Aleppo and west to the coast.  The rebels controlling the Euphrates valley, and the Kurds their North East portion.  Such a result might be viable as the many 3rd parties to the affair could maintain their interests at a relatively low price.  Nobody would win, but nobody would lose either. 

However, that assumes no game changers.  The apparent chemical attacks this week near Damascus could be such a game changer.  Somewhere there is a red line, and Assad may have just crossed it.

Chemical weapons have not been used widely since they were banned after WW1.  Expensive, finicky, subject to wild swings in efficacy due to weather, and just as dangerous to the attackers as the defenders, chemical weapons have been more trouble than they were worth.  It's simply too difficult to get a reliable tactical advantage on the battlefield sufficient to outweigh the political costs.  Those political costs are based on the terror chemical weapons inspire in civilians.

Assad seems to have found a way to use them as a poor man's nuke.  Lobbing chemical weapons into opposition neighborhoods overcomes the tactical disadvantages.  If they are ineffective due to weather, its no loss.  The distance between your forces and the targets will be sufficient to avoid exposure if the wind blows the wrong way.  There is no effective counter-measure for the rebels.  Though their usefulness is limited to terrorizing civilians.

But there is a political cost.  At some point, after some red line, the International Community will put aside their differences and squash the Assad regime as a common threat.  Last year, the Russians let it be known that they strongly opposed the use of chemical weapons in Syria.  Their current rhetoric insists not that its OK to use the weapons, but absent conclusive proof, they have not been used at all.  Widespread and blatant use by Assad would render that position untenible.  In the big picture, Assad is not an essential asset to the Russians.  They will throw him to the wolves if it suits them.  Iran will still be there, but Iran cannot stop the Western powers if they decide to intervene.

All this means that Assad can go too far and lose everything.  As of today, it looks like the red line has been found.

Gettysburg Gate

This is the gate of the Evergreen Cemetery, which gives Cemetery hill its name.  It looks much the same as it did in July 1863, apart from the paved road and the nice landscaping.  On the second day, the Southerners took the crest of this hill, along with the gate.  But they were unsupported, and were driven off by Union re-reinforcements.  Lee's best chance to win the battle slipped away due to poor generalship by Ewell, who turned out to be a disappointing replacement for the dead Stonewall Jackson.

Gettysburg: Stars & Bars

I've just come back from a few days at Gettysburg.  More photos will be forthcoming.

To start, I was surprised at the number of Confederate flags on the battlefield and at the trinkets and trash stores around town.  The almost equal time given to this symbol creates the impression that this was all a civilized discussion that got tragically out of hand.  I wonder how Americans would feel about the Germans putting swastikas all over Omaha beach?  To me its almost the same thing.  This is a symbol of slavery, discrimination and the ruthless exploitation of people for profit. 

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The genius of you Americans is that you never make clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make the rest of us wonder at the possibility that we might be missing something.
Gamal Abdel Nasser

On further reflection, I have to admit that Nasser thought glib sound bites were the same as practical solutions.  

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The uprising in Egypt was initiated by the young generation. The uprising achieved two things. One is it made the lives of dictators impossible. Today, if you are looking for a safe job, don't become a dictator.
Shimon Peres

Why Morsi Had To Go

Debate over the legitimacy of Mohammed Morsi's defenestration continues, with John McCain calling the action a coup. "Coup" is a loaded word because political activity by the Egyptian Military would stop American military aid.  However, this was not a coup.  It was not an abrogation of democracy.  For the future of democracy in Egypt, Morsi had to go.

The Morsi government was a disaster by any measure.  The economy was a shambles and getting worse.  Foreign Policy was incoherent and sporadic.  The security situation in Sinai is a shit show.  Morsi pissed off everyone, the Army, the Police, the Media, the Judiciary, the Copts, the Shia, Islamic clerics, and even other Islamic political parties.  While the country fell apart around their ears, the Morsi government proved interested in only one issue, institutionalizing the Muslim Brotherhood's grasp on power.  At the same time, they frightened just about everyone who did not vote for Morsi by pushing Islamization when he had no mandate to do so.  Indeed after promising they would not.

In the days before Morsi was deposed, 15 million Egyptians came out in the streets to demand his ouster.  Egypt is 3x the size of Canada.  Imagine if 5 million people came out here to demand a change of government.  There would be a change of government. 

The key point is that while elections are the lungs of democracy, political accountability is its heart.  Do a bad job and lose your job.  Morsi and his party were building a system where the Muslim Brotherhood could not be held accountable.  In this way, Morsi was subverting democratic institutions on a permanent basis. For all these reasons, Morsi had to go.

UPDATE Aug 20:
It's important to say that because Morsi had to go does not mean the suppression and murder of his supporters by the military is justified in any way whatsoever.  Morsi's mistakes were political, and subject to political accountability, not criminal prosecution.   The Army is massacring protesters on the streets.