Campaign Round-Up

Whoa.  What a campaign.  I worked on Chrystia Freeland's by-election in Toronto Centre and it was an amazing experience.  Or set of experiences.  I got to photograph Justin Trudeau from close up, sat through Friday prayers at a mosque, watched a Deputy Returning Officer get fired at 4PM on election day, listen to an NDP poll worker's racist rant about non-english speakers, talked about artillery with Lt. Gen. (ret) Andrew Leslie, watched Kevin Clarke go ballistic, met dozens of fascinating people, had tons of energy, got to be a part of the game, and to top it off, a fantastic party after we won.

It was a good time.  The biggest thing was that they asked me to take photos.  I forgot that I could do people pictures.  Its been such a long time.  But I knew exactly what to do, and despite being very rusty, managed to do it.  Here are some of the best photos.  Some are duplicates of earlier posts, but I did all these over again as I gained practice at Lightroom and Photoshop.

 Justin Trudeau

 Chrystia Freeland

 Justin Trudeau canvassing on Parliament Street.

 Linda McQuaig, John Deverell, Chrystia Freeland at the UofT debate.

 Paul Martin canvassing in Yorkville.

 John Tory moderating the debate at Jarvis Collegiate.

 Chrystia at the Jarvis debate.

 Chrystia's handlers Rebecca and Ben fiercely concentrating during a scrum at the Jarvis debate.

 Bob Rae, Justin Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne at a campaign rally.

 Justin Trudeau at the same rally.

 And again with Kathleen Wynne.

Senator Art Eggleton watching the early results.

Chrystia during her victory speech.

Bob Rae

My Pix

Paul Martin light:

Paul Martin dark:

My Pix

Candidates at the U of T debate, Nov 16.

My Pix

Got to take a photo of Justin Trudeau while working on Chrystia Freeland's Toronto Center Campaign.  He cleans up real nice.

My Pix

Chrystia Freeland at her Toronto Center election headquarters, Oct 27, 2013

Yap

People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.
Otto von Bismarck 

Yap

Every election is a sort of advance auction sale of stolen goods.
H. L. Mencken

From The Campaign Trail

 Peter Milczyn interviewed at his campaign headquarters, July 29, 2013. Only the cameraman showed up.  The reporter asked questions on speaker phone. 

No posts in the last few weeks because I was working on Peter Milczyn's campaign in the Provincial by-election.   It was a great experience.  The best part was scrutineering.  I got to watch the votes counted on my poll and was responsible for checking the count and challenging any ballots I saw as invalid.  None were.  We won my poll, but lost the election.  From my lowly viewpoint as a volunteer (volunteers get the mushroom treatment), the vote was decided by Liberal voters who elected to punish us by staying home.  I managed to turn out less than half the Liberal voters in my poll.  On the other hand, Conservatives came out in droves. 

Yet it was a respectable loss; 46.6% for Holyday, 40% for Milczyn.  Turnout was a bit above average for a by-election: ~35%.  I made a complete fool of myself by saying we would win despite the polls.  I could see we had the votes, and thought we could turn them out with our superior ground game.  That was spectacularly wrong.  I had slipped into magical thinking. 

There were many funny and interesting things that happened.  Like the man who wouldn't vote for Peter because he didn't like his neigbours's fence.  Or the woman who screamed that I'm an asshole, just like her son.  One man called me a dictator for knocking on his door.  The best conversation was with a voter who wanted me to tell him if it was OK to put diesel in his gas car.  I thought not, but he advised that you could get away with 20% and wanted my views about going to 30%. 

Here are a few pictures:

An apartment door in Maybelle.  Pat's in deep shit.

Toronto Hydro's attitude to danger.

The Stretch

      Photo: Jason Reed Reuters

I haven't been posting about the US Election because there seemed to be too much going on for a good overview.  Now that the debates are done, things are clearer.  Just as everyone expected at the outset, it will be close.  Turnout is the game now.  Despite Republican claims, Obama should have the superior ground game.  He's put a lot of effort and money into local campaign offices, far more than Romney.  And he started with what many people think was the best organization ever in 2008.  In addition, he still has the Electoral math in his favour.  While the national polls are tied, Obama still has a lead in the swing state polls.  He's ahead by around 2 points in Iowa,  2 points in Ohio, 3 points in Wisconsin and 2 points in Nevada.  Virginia and New Hampshire are tied.  Florida and Colorado are leaning Romney.  Right now, Obama has 237 Electoral votes in the bag and needs only 33 more to win.  Romney on the other hand, needs 64 to win.  He really needs Florida and Ohio to do it. 

So I'm still expecting an Obama victory.  But it will be close.  How close depends on turnout, as I said.  It also depends on Republican election day voter suppression.  What kind of plans they have and how successful they will be is unknowable at this point.  But they've done it before, especially in Ohio.  However, this time they've lost multiple times in court, and vigilance is high.  Unlike Kerry, the Obama campaign have a lot of weapons.  So while shenanigans may occur, I doubt they can be as effective as 2004.  Karl Rove is still around, but he doesn't command the same army.

Lastly, I thought Obama wiped the floor with Romney at the third debate.  Mitt was red and sweating by the end.  He was lucky to get the China question at the end, for which he had a good answer.  Otherwise, it would have been a complete embarrasment.  But there was something else in the China answer that got me thinking.  What's the most effective way to reduce your debt level?  Inflate it away.  I'm wondering if Romney's math starts to make more sense if you put in a 4% inflation rate.  However, the economic conditions favouring inflation seem a long way away from the current situation. 

Romney Spins His Wheels

     AP Photo | M. SPENCER GREEN

Poor Mitt. Nobody understands him.  He's had 2 weeks to get some traction after the convention and hasn't gone anywhere.  He is running out of time.  He needs to advance his agenda, jobs and the economy.  He has not kept his focus on that agenda.  Rather, he's gotten pulled into a foriegn policy debate.  He hasn't a clue about foriegn policy, so why is he wasting his time talking about it? Now things may go bad for Obama over the Mid-East protests, but Mitt has already blown his chance to capitalize.

Romney expected this election to be a referendum on Obama's handling of the economy. The conventional wisdom 2 months ago was that Obama couldn't run on his iffy record.  That Romney wouldn't need to get into policy specifics.  Well all that changed with the Democratic Convention.  Because Romney hasn't explained his policies, Bill Clinton did it for him.  Clinton also demolished, in detail, Romney's entire platform.  And Obama came out with a ringing defense of his record.  So.  Time for plan B.  But Romney doesn't seem to have a plan B. And he doesn't seem to have any compelling policies he's willing to talk about.

The momentum is with Obama now.  Mitt's next big chance to change that is the debates.  But the debates put him in a difficult place.  He has to attack and land telling blows on Obama.  Obama just has to act Presidential and get a few jabs in.  Rope-a-dope.  At lest George Forman had a killer punch. And the debates don't start for 3 weeks.  What will Romney do between now and then?  Figure out a plan B I guess.  Good luck Mitt!

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Note: in an earlier article, I said Mitt would need to pull off a difficult double pivot at his convention.  But he didn't pivot at all.  I assumed that was a tactical decision, but I'm now wondering if a pivot was beyond his ability in the 1st place.

Key Factors in 2012 Election

From NYTimes, some great maps

Here is my list of the factors that will decide the US 1012 Presidential Election.  Obviously speculative.  I hope I'm not going to look like an idiot on Nov. 7.

The one thing that comes up again and again is turnout.  It looks to me like the one who gets their vote out and persuades the opposition voters to stay home is going to win.  


Demographics
The US is becoming less white.   This is a long-term trend driven by immigration and higher birth rates among immigrants.  This trend started the 1980's, and started becoming politically relevant in the last 10 years.  Nate Silver, who I follow closely at Five Thirty Eight, analyzes actual voting to see the numbers from 2004 and 2008.  Here are the break-downs:


Mr Silver makes the following points:

• This table is about turnout (based on exit polls), not the underlying demographics of voters.  Though the two are closely related.
• White voters dropped from 77% of the electorate to 73.3% between 2004 and 2008.  Though we cannot assume they will drop further this year.
• Bush's 2004 win depended on his taking an astounding 43% of Latino voters.  Currently, Romney is polling around 30% of Latinos.
• It isn't just turnout that matters, Obama's big margins with Black, Latino, Asian and Other groups gave him the edge in 2008.
• If Obama can generate similar turnout with these groups, he is likely to win again.

Electoral Math
After the conventions, National polling numbers become unimportant.  The action moves to the 50 state elections, where the Electoral College Votes come from.  The votes are awarded to states based on population.  Thus California has 55 Electoral College Votes, Delaware has 3.  270 votes are needed to win.  Its winner take all for each state.  Obama took 375 in 2008. 

Obama has a lot of Electoral votes locked up already and leads Romney 237 to 206 (sez NYT).  This based on states solid or leaning towards one of the two candidates.  Swing states are not included:  Florida (29 votes), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6) and Virginia (13).  

Put another way, there are 95 votes up for grabs in the swing states.  Obama needs only 33 of these votes to win.  There are a variety of scenarios that can deliver those votes.  If he wins Florida, and any one of the other swing states, he wins the election.  He can also win while losing Florida.  Despite being considered up for grabs, Obama has a healthy shot at Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia.  That's 36 votes right there.  Romney, on the other hand, needs 64 votes to win.  He must win Florida or he doesn't stand a chance.  Even if he does win Florida, he still needs either Ohio or Virginia plus some of the others.

For comparison, here are the latest Electoral College numbers from different sources:

From this point of view, Obama is the man to beat. 


Money
As I said in an earlier post, money is one of Obama's biggest problems.  It is likely that the Republicans + SuperPACs will outspend Obama 2:1 or more this fall.  How this will turn out is anyone's guess because there has never been this much money thrown at a Presidential election.  In the usual election math, more dollars = more votes.  Team Obama needs a counter strategy, and its outlines are emerging.  First, Obama has spent a lot more money on ground teams than Romney.  As of last week, the Obama campaign had ~720 full-time employees, Romney ~220.  Team Obama has been working for months on building up the ground game.  It is too soon to say that Obama has Romney beat on the ground, but if he has, it would look like this.

Secondly, Obama's campaign spent a lot of ad money in the summer to attack Romney on his taxes, his business record and his likeability.  This was a gamble, but it seems to have succeeded, putting Romney on the defensive.

Thirdly, Romney has a control issue.  He does not control the majority of the money being spent against Obama this fall.  SuperPACs are disallowed by law from coordinating their efforts with candidates.  They are also not accountable to anyone except the SuperPAC's financiers.  If some crazy billionaire wants to run ads 24/7 saying Obama is a Gay Kenyan Muslim Crack Head, Romney can't stop them.  There are a lot of would-be king makers with money who may compete with the official campaign, like Karl Rove. 

Despite the prospect of being vastly outspent, the Obama campaign is doing pretty well with fund raising and I have the impression they will have at least as much money as 2008.  So they are not starving for funds.

Again, nobody knows how this will play out, but its not game over for Obama.

The Economy
This agreed by all to be the primary issue this fall.  Romney went into this assuming he would win an up or down vote on Obama's handling of the economy.  He has learned that it won't be so easy.  Reagan's "are you better off now than you were four years ago?" question doesn't wash to a clear answer.  In many ways Americans are a lot better off than they were four years ago.  The economic crisis of 2008-09 is over.  The markets have come back and restored the value lost in 2008.  The US Economy has grown 15% since 2008 (anemic, but an improvement nonetheless).  Housing prices have been rising for the last 6 months.

On the other hand, unemployment is very high by US standards.  Most of the manufacturing jobs lost in the recession are gone for good.  The deficit, thanks to Bush's tax cuts and starting 2 wars, is terrible .  But the rest of the world has the same economic problems, or worse.  If China, Japan and Europe were doing great economically, Obama would be in a lot more trouble.  But they are not doing well.  Bad economic news from abroad does Obama some good by providing context to the US numbers and reminding people he isn't solely to blame for their problems.

In addition, economic news could go either way in the next 60ish days.  One or two good reports, or bad reports would change the election momentum, or not.  In particular the job numbers for August and September could have an impact.

All in, the economy has not been the decisive force Romney expected.  But it may yet.  Americans by a wide margin have doubts Obama's handling of the economy. 

Psychology
Americans want to like their President.  They like Obama a lot more than they like Romney (latest poll from today puts Obama at 50%, Romney 30%).  They also give him higher marks as a leader.  His Presidential approval ratings have ranged from 50% to 38% since January 2011.  Most of the time he has been in the mid 40s and is 44% as of today.  These are on the low side for a sitting President and suggest he does not have this election in the bag.  He is vulnerable. 

However, in a tight election that comes down turnout, other factors come into play.  Rasmussen has voters believing 53% to 33% that Obama will win.  A perception of losing will depress Republican turnout.  In addition, Republican pollsters have said that Obama has lingering good will among voters disappointed by his Presidency so-far.  Many want to give him a second chance.  Also, when it comes down to raw political ability, Obama beats Romney hands down.  The Obama campaign has yet to make a major error.  Romney and the GOP are taking water on a weekly basis.  Barely has Romney had the chance to enjoy his modest convention bump when all the news is talking about Paul Ryan's marathon time.  Team Romney has trouble staying on message and on strategy.  Romney's speech last week was poor, IMHO.  He needed a home run and he got a stand-up double.  In particular, his invitation to scorn Global Warming was a gratuitous gesture to the base that will play badly among many potential swing voters.  It was a poor choice for the climax of his speech. 

As far as substance goes, Romney's campaign is leaning on lies.  Everyone in politics lies of course.  What's different here is that lies are the bedrock of Romney's message.  And they are not distortions or dissembling or half-truths, though he has those too.  They are outright lies.  For example the claims that Obama removed work requirements for welfare, that he raised taxes, that he closed that factory in Wisconsin, that he plans to cut $700 billion from Medicare.  These are all demonstrably false.  Even the US press is getting itchy reporting them every time Romney or Ryan start talking.

Lastly, the partial block of Ohio's vote suppression efforts by a Federal court dampens Romney's last hope.  Voter ID laws have also been blocked in whole or part in South Carolina and Texas, though both are solid Romney states anyway.  Ongoing cases in Pennsylvania (leaning Obama) and Florida (toss-up) could become crucial. 

In the turnout game, all of these factors are important.  Though which, if any, become decisive is unknowable at this time.


Summary
Overall, things look good for Obama.  He has the Electoral math and demographics in his favour.  He is more popular and more politically skilled than Romney.  He's spending a lot of money on turnout.  The economy hasn't been the drag people expected.  However, he remains vulnerable.  An unexpected piece of good or bad news could shift the momentum.  The Republican money advantage could prove decisive in some swing states.

Obama also needs a very good speech at the convention this week.  He needs to put the disappointment of the last four years in context and give people good reasons to vote for him rather than against Romney.  He needs to seal the deal with Independents and disaffected Democrats. He needs to give them a compelling reason to get off the couch and vote on Nov 6.  He needs turnout.  If he gets turnout, then a close election will seem a lot less close in retrospect.

Mitt's Problems

     Photo: Little Face Mitt

Mitt has problems too.  Problems that require finesse.  Finesse does not come easily to a man with such a small face.

An Uphill Fight
It is hard to unseat a President.  In recent history, it happened in 1932, 1976, 1980 and 1992 (and I wouldn't count 1976 because of the unusual circumstances).  Incumbents have lots of tools unavailable to challengers.   The economy may be in the shitter, but Obama has a solid approval rating and is personally popular.  He doesn't need to act Presidential.  He is Presidential.  These are inherent advantages no challenger could match. 

GOP Base
Unlike the Democrats, who are unified behind Obama, the GOP base is fractured.  It is held together by duct tape and a shared loathing of Obama.  Its more like a collection of factions than a party.  A short list of those factions:  Washington Insiders, Eastern Establishment Aristocrats, Banksters, SuperPAC Funders, Elderly Whites, Conservative Christians, Free Enterprisers, Small Business, Immigration Foes, Working Whites, Pro-Lifers, Industry Interests, Tea Partiers and the Rich.  There is obviously some overlap between factions.  While these factions agree broadly on key policies like taxes, health care and social issues, their interests diverge.  For example, the tax cuts wanted by the rich would have a negative impact on working whites who would resist cuts to programs they use. Some industries need illegal immigrants to support their business models.  Elderly whites don't want Medicare touched.

Then there are people like Todd "Legitimate Rape" Akin.  There is always a wingnut Republican who will say something outrageous.  They usually don't do as much damage as Representative Akin, but they are out there,  a sound bite away from derailing Romney's campaign for a day, or a week or a month.  Given the Republican strategy of disenfranchising minority voters, and the rabid hate for Obama among the base, we can expect a parade of race issue misstatements through the fall.

Lastly, Romney has a credibility problem with the right wing of the party.  Mitt espoused some pretty liberal views when he was Governor of Massachusetts.  He was pro-choice, supported gay rights, and introduced the first public health care in the US.  It became the model for Obamacare.  Although Mitt is pretty flexible when it comes to what he believes in, he needs to convince the base he believes what they believe. Not convincing the base will risk disillusioned Republicans staying home on election day.

The Double Pivot
One of the most difficult moves for an American Presidential candidate is the post-covention pivot.  Unless you competely control the party, you are going to have to say things in the convention that are more partisan than the campaign you want to run.  Meaning you have to move from the right or left towards the center after the convention.  The difficulty lies in not appearing two-faced to the party members or the electorate. And not saying anything to the party that will come back to haunt you in the campaign.  Above average communicators like Reagan did this really well.  Mitt is not an above average communicator.  And Obama controls his party, so he won't have to pivot at all.

In addition, Romney is going to have to pivot going into the convention.  He has to prove his conservative bona fides to the GOP base.  He has to pivot from center-right to far-right going in, and from far-right to center-right coming out.  That's one more pivot than most teams can handle.