Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Syria in October
Results of an air strike near Damascus October 30, 2012 REUTERS/Maawia Al-Naser/Shaam News Network/Handout
After a very tense summer, the outside parties to Syria's civil war have stepped back from the brink. The war goes on, but the rebels at least are being starved of weapons by their sponsors. The Americans are worried about weapons falling into the hands of jihadis. The Turks, Qataris and Saudis seem to be heeding American doubts. I have no information on how the Government is doing for supplies, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear the Russians are quietly starving them as well.
In any case, the Syrian military has been notably ineffective in suppressing the rebels despite huge advantages in equipment and manpower. I'd give a win on points to the rebels so-far for simply surviving.
So it seems like there will be a cold, miserable winter in Syria with no resolution. Nevertheless, Syria remains a powder keg. By far the most important issue in the Middle East today. That's because (as I've said before) all the regional fault lines run through it. Syria may end up like Afghanistan where all the regional players would rather have instability than a solid government favouring a different player. In Syria, its the Iranians against the Saudis. Neither will accept a government beholden to the other. So continued war is the safest bet. As long as nobody wins it. The Syrian people don't enter into the calculation, unfortunately.
After a very tense summer, the outside parties to Syria's civil war have stepped back from the brink. The war goes on, but the rebels at least are being starved of weapons by their sponsors. The Americans are worried about weapons falling into the hands of jihadis. The Turks, Qataris and Saudis seem to be heeding American doubts. I have no information on how the Government is doing for supplies, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear the Russians are quietly starving them as well.
In any case, the Syrian military has been notably ineffective in suppressing the rebels despite huge advantages in equipment and manpower. I'd give a win on points to the rebels so-far for simply surviving.
So it seems like there will be a cold, miserable winter in Syria with no resolution. Nevertheless, Syria remains a powder keg. By far the most important issue in the Middle East today. That's because (as I've said before) all the regional fault lines run through it. Syria may end up like Afghanistan where all the regional players would rather have instability than a solid government favouring a different player. In Syria, its the Iranians against the Saudis. Neither will accept a government beholden to the other. So continued war is the safest bet. As long as nobody wins it. The Syrian people don't enter into the calculation, unfortunately.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Ichiro
My hero this baseball season is Ichiro. The most graceful man in baseball. He is so famous in Japan that his agent claims he will receive any package addressed simply "Ichiro".
This season, the 38 year old's career was fading. There was no way he would make the playoffs with Seattle and his time was running out. In a delightful turn of events, he was traded to the Yankees. There he had to start at the bottom, playing left field and at the bottom of the batting order. But since joining the Yankees, he as been a man on fire. In his last 10 games (as of Oct. 1), he's batting .356. Girardi has put him back in right field, and he was hitting 1st or 2nd in the lineup this weekend.
Ichiro is having a career year. I only hope he gets to show his stuff in his 1st World Series.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Romney Spins His Wheels
AP Photo | M. SPENCER GREEN
Poor Mitt. Nobody understands him. He's had 2 weeks to get some traction after the convention and hasn't gone anywhere. He is running out of time. He needs to advance his agenda, jobs and the economy. He has not kept his focus on that agenda. Rather, he's gotten pulled into a foriegn policy debate. He hasn't a clue about foriegn policy, so why is he wasting his time talking about it? Now things may go bad for Obama over the Mid-East protests, but Mitt has already blown his chance to capitalize.
Romney expected this election to be a referendum on Obama's handling of the economy. The conventional wisdom 2 months ago was that Obama couldn't run on his iffy record. That Romney wouldn't need to get into policy specifics. Well all that changed with the Democratic Convention. Because Romney hasn't explained his policies, Bill Clinton did it for him. Clinton also demolished, in detail, Romney's entire platform. And Obama came out with a ringing defense of his record. So. Time for plan B. But Romney doesn't seem to have a plan B. And he doesn't seem to have any compelling policies he's willing to talk about.
The momentum is with Obama now. Mitt's next big chance to change that is the debates. But the debates put him in a difficult place. He has to attack and land telling blows on Obama. Obama just has to act Presidential and get a few jabs in. Rope-a-dope. At lest George Forman had a killer punch. And the debates don't start for 3 weeks. What will Romney do between now and then? Figure out a plan B I guess. Good luck Mitt!
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Note: in an earlier article, I said Mitt would need to pull off a difficult double pivot at his convention. But he didn't pivot at all. I assumed that was a tactical decision, but I'm now wondering if a pivot was beyond his ability in the 1st place.
Poor Mitt. Nobody understands him. He's had 2 weeks to get some traction after the convention and hasn't gone anywhere. He is running out of time. He needs to advance his agenda, jobs and the economy. He has not kept his focus on that agenda. Rather, he's gotten pulled into a foriegn policy debate. He hasn't a clue about foriegn policy, so why is he wasting his time talking about it? Now things may go bad for Obama over the Mid-East protests, but Mitt has already blown his chance to capitalize.
Romney expected this election to be a referendum on Obama's handling of the economy. The conventional wisdom 2 months ago was that Obama couldn't run on his iffy record. That Romney wouldn't need to get into policy specifics. Well all that changed with the Democratic Convention. Because Romney hasn't explained his policies, Bill Clinton did it for him. Clinton also demolished, in detail, Romney's entire platform. And Obama came out with a ringing defense of his record. So. Time for plan B. But Romney doesn't seem to have a plan B. And he doesn't seem to have any compelling policies he's willing to talk about.
The momentum is with Obama now. Mitt's next big chance to change that is the debates. But the debates put him in a difficult place. He has to attack and land telling blows on Obama. Obama just has to act Presidential and get a few jabs in. Rope-a-dope. At lest George Forman had a killer punch. And the debates don't start for 3 weeks. What will Romney do between now and then? Figure out a plan B I guess. Good luck Mitt!
======
Note: in an earlier article, I said Mitt would need to pull off a difficult double pivot at his convention. But he didn't pivot at all. I assumed that was a tactical decision, but I'm now wondering if a pivot was beyond his ability in the 1st place.
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