Structural analysis of the US debt markets by M.C. Escher
Since nobody at the US Treasury Department seems to be listening to me, I'll re-iterate what I said yesterday. Re-animating the system for securitizing consumer debt is not a solution to the problem. The securitization of consumer debt is the problem. The system can't be put back together because its fundamentally broken.
Two things have happened. First, there was a systemic breakdown in the linking of risk and reward. Securitizing mortgages allowed those who granted the mortgages to pass the risk to someone else via securitization. Once securitized, the underlying risk of the individual mortgages was lost. Its not just that investors sucked up securitized mortgages without looking at the underlying risk, its that they sucked them up despite being unable to look at the underlying risk. That's not supposed to happen. That it did is evidence the system itself was broken in ways only now coming to light. The second thing was that global investors and US consumers used the broken system to throw a party. Because there is no central exchange or clearinghouse for securitized debt, nobody knows the total amount out there. US Consumers took on too much debt and there was no way to tell. Had this information been available, alarm bells would have gone off long ago. Everyone involved is guilty here. The exchanges, the banks, the investment banks, the mortgage lenders, the consumers, the investors and especially the Fed and the Treasury Department.
OK, so now the system is broken. What happens next? The banking crisis will continue for some time. One of the really bad things banks did during the boom was to securitize their loans and sell them off. That took the loans off the balance sheet. They no longer counted against the bank's lending ratio. But who bought most of the securitized debt? Other banks. They bought the debt and put it on the asset side of the balance sheet. Loans that should have counted against the bank's lending ratio were magically transformed into assets that increased a bank's lending ratio. It is going to take years to unwind all twists and turns in bank assets. In the meantime, banks are sensibly avoiding purchases of new securitized debt. The debt market is thus frozen. It doesn't matter how much money the Treasury Department throws at the banks, they are not going to turn on the taps again until the debt they already have gets figured out.
That brings up the next problem. Because the risk/return relationship was disrupted by massive securitization, there is no way to know what the existing securities are worth. The security is good until someone defaults. Then its worth nothing. Or more precisely, partly nothing since thousands of individual loans were combined into the securities. In a theoretical worst case, you don't know that a batch of securitized mortgages is good until 30 years have passed and all the underlying mortgages are paid off. In reality, modeling will tell you how good the pool is based on the performance of a small sample. But the models depend on 20 years of historical performance. They can't predict what's happening now, and they can't predict what's going to happen as a result. Think of it this way. 20 years of data on a beach's wave action won't tell you when a tsunami is coming or how bad it will be.
Unfortunately, it gets worse. Batches of securitized debt should have a consistent risk profile. They should be just as risky today as tomorrow. That's not the case anymore. As US housing prices fall, and economic activity slows down, more and more of the underlying debts will default. The gobs of securitized US consumer debt are getting riskier each day. Again, no amount of government guarantees to the banks can change that. As the crisis gets worse, more and more securitized debt goes bad. It has now spread from the US housing market to the wider consumer market. Securitized credit card debt, student loans and car loans are plunging in value. As I said yesterday, US consumers have borrowed more than they can repay. A clamp-down on consumer lending is inevitable and rational. The entire system of creating wealth through selling securitized loans is broken. The financial markets will have to either find new ways to facilitate debt or return to the pre-derivatives methods used prior to the '90's. Either way, all the bad securities created in the last 20 years need to be undone, with un-foreseeable consequences.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
What Paulson Said
Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times
Henry Paulson's news conference yesterday scared the shit out of me. It is now clear that the US Government has no plan to deal with the crisis. They don't even understand it. The key thing Paulson said was:
Cheap, securitized credit was what got us into this mess. More of it won't get us out. The system is fundamentally broken. Restoring the status-quo is not a viable option. The system has to get fixed. American consumers have financed their prosperity for the last 20 years through credit and the bill is due.
As a group, US consumers have a negative savings rate of 113%. They owe $1.13 for each $1.00 of assets they own. And with house prices still falling, that $1.00 of assets is going to be worth less. But the $1.13 stays the same, so the problem gets worse every day. The reason banks and credit card companies can't finance new consumer debt is because American consumers are a bad risk. They already have more debt than they can pay off. All the government money in the world won't change that.
The money Paulson wants to throw at the markets comes from one of three places; taxes, bonds or the printing press. The current lame-duck Congress can't pass significant new taxes. Obama has promised a tax cut to 95% of US households. With the economy burning around them, US legislators will not support new taxes next year. So the US government will need to borrow the money through selling bonds. At some point, foreigners are going to see the staggering levels of US public and private debt as a problem. Then they will stop buying US bonds. At that point, the only way the US government can continue to function is by printing money. That risks a dollar crash. If the current problems are like Mount St. Helens, a dollar crash would be like Krakatoa.
Things are already looking dicey for continued massive US government borrowing. China has announced an enormous stimulus package. The best place for them to get that money would be to sell some of the almost $1 trillion they own in US Treasuries, creating a down-draft on the US$. Even if they hold on to their Treasuries in order to keep the Yuan from going up, they will be spending their money at home, not lending it to the US. Likewise the Japanese and the OPEC countries. Lower demand and/or lower prices mean that they don't have as many US dollars that need parking. Early signs of possible trouble in the US Treasuries markets have already surfaced.
An inability to raise taxes, lower demand for US Treasuries and a continuing need to throw money at the US credit markets sets the stage for a perfect financial storm. This crisis is far from over. The current US administration has not come to grips with the underlying problems. The US financial sector still seems more focused on bonuses than survival. Unless someone like Obama comes up with a really good idea soon, things are going to get much worse before they get better.
An excellent overview of the situation for the non-MBA by Niall Ferguson is here. Long but worth it.
Henry Paulson's news conference yesterday scared the shit out of me. It is now clear that the US Government has no plan to deal with the crisis. They don't even understand it. The key thing Paulson said was:
the important markets for securitizing credit outside of the banking system also need support. Approximately 40 percent of U.S. consumer credit is provided through securitization of credit card receivables, auto loans and student loans and similar products. This market, which is vital for lending and growth, has for all practical purposes ground to a halt. Addressing these two priorities will have powerful impacts on the overall financial system, the strength of our financial institutions and the availability of consumer credit.Full text here .
Cheap, securitized credit was what got us into this mess. More of it won't get us out. The system is fundamentally broken. Restoring the status-quo is not a viable option. The system has to get fixed. American consumers have financed their prosperity for the last 20 years through credit and the bill is due.
As a group, US consumers have a negative savings rate of 113%. They owe $1.13 for each $1.00 of assets they own. And with house prices still falling, that $1.00 of assets is going to be worth less. But the $1.13 stays the same, so the problem gets worse every day. The reason banks and credit card companies can't finance new consumer debt is because American consumers are a bad risk. They already have more debt than they can pay off. All the government money in the world won't change that.
The money Paulson wants to throw at the markets comes from one of three places; taxes, bonds or the printing press. The current lame-duck Congress can't pass significant new taxes. Obama has promised a tax cut to 95% of US households. With the economy burning around them, US legislators will not support new taxes next year. So the US government will need to borrow the money through selling bonds. At some point, foreigners are going to see the staggering levels of US public and private debt as a problem. Then they will stop buying US bonds. At that point, the only way the US government can continue to function is by printing money. That risks a dollar crash. If the current problems are like Mount St. Helens, a dollar crash would be like Krakatoa.
Things are already looking dicey for continued massive US government borrowing. China has announced an enormous stimulus package. The best place for them to get that money would be to sell some of the almost $1 trillion they own in US Treasuries, creating a down-draft on the US$. Even if they hold on to their Treasuries in order to keep the Yuan from going up, they will be spending their money at home, not lending it to the US. Likewise the Japanese and the OPEC countries. Lower demand and/or lower prices mean that they don't have as many US dollars that need parking. Early signs of possible trouble in the US Treasuries markets have already surfaced.
An inability to raise taxes, lower demand for US Treasuries and a continuing need to throw money at the US credit markets sets the stage for a perfect financial storm. This crisis is far from over. The current US administration has not come to grips with the underlying problems. The US financial sector still seems more focused on bonuses than survival. Unless someone like Obama comes up with a really good idea soon, things are going to get much worse before they get better.
An excellent overview of the situation for the non-MBA by Niall Ferguson is here. Long but worth it.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
November 11
Captain Jeff Francis, 1st Regiment, Royal Canadian Horse Artillery, Shilo, Manitoba. Captain Francis was from Halifax and was married, with one child. He and six others were killed by a roadside bomb 20 km south-west of Kandahar City, Afghanistan, July 4, 2007. The others were Captain Matthew Dawe, Master Corporal Colin Bason, Corporal Jordan Anderson, Corporal Cole Bartsch, Private Lane Watkins and an Afghan interpreter.
Monday, November 10, 2008
My Pix
Flowers, County Donegal, Ireland - 1988
Another harmonious combination of Kodachrome 200 and the 300mm lens. This is one of my favorite photos.
Another harmonious combination of Kodachrome 200 and the 300mm lens. This is one of my favorite photos.
Fun Facts To Know And Share

Elvis Presley, Chuck Berry and James Brown all made their first records in 1954. Berry is the only one still alive. He is still performing at age 82. Here is his website . I saw him perform in the late 1970's. It was a great concert.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
My Pix
Near Lispole, County Kerry, Ireland - 1987
Kodachrome 200 - 300mm lens
The keen-eyed will notice that this photo is taken from the road on Kinnard hill looking north-north-west. The school is in the middle distance, Gowlin and Lisdargan in the far distance. Punters may also want to note that Clooncurra, Churchfield, Deerpark and Emlagh now appear as place-names on Google Maps.
Kodachrome 200 and the 300mm lens were a killer combination. I like this photo because it was atmospheric, hard to capture. And I got it.
All my photos are on Flickr .
Kodachrome 200 - 300mm lens
The keen-eyed will notice that this photo is taken from the road on Kinnard hill looking north-north-west. The school is in the middle distance, Gowlin and Lisdargan in the far distance. Punters may also want to note that Clooncurra, Churchfield, Deerpark and Emlagh now appear as place-names on Google Maps.
Kodachrome 200 and the 300mm lens were a killer combination. I like this photo because it was atmospheric, hard to capture. And I got it.
All my photos are on Flickr .
Saturday, November 8, 2008
WW2
When I was a kid in the 1960's, most of the adults had been through the war. They all had stories. Some were great. The father of one friend had commanded a company of Shermans in Italy. He had a fantastic story about Tiger hunting in Italian hill towns. To go after a Tiger tank, the rule of thumb was that you needed five Shermans. The Sherman's 75mm gun was useless against anything but the Tiger's rear. Three Shermans would maneuver to get the Tiger backed up against a wall or a house. The other two Shermans would fire into the structure. The idea was to have one Sherman loaded and ready to fire at the rear of the Tiger as the other one brought down the last wall. It was a very high-stakes game of chicken.
This photo of a Canadian Sherman outside Potenza in 1943 is pretty close to both the tank and the hill town in the story.
Yap
From the moment I picked your book up until I laid it down I was convulsed with laughter. Some day I intend reading it.
Groucho Marx
via Gabriel Robins
Groucho Marx
via Gabriel Robins
Faves: Everybody's Rockin'
I've got a soft spot for both Neil Young and Rockabilly. So his 1983 Rockabilly album Everybody's Rockin' was a favorite from day one.
Rockabilly is the forgotten genre of American music. Its an article of faith that Elvis' success came from re-packaging "colored" music for white audiences. I've never agreed, because Elvis was Rockabilly through and through from the beginning. His earliest and best records were made in Sam Phillips' Sun Records studios, the capitol of Rockabilly. The same place that a young Johnny Cash was also making Rockabilly records before he went Country.
Neil Young captured the weird undercurrents in Rockabilly on Everybody's Rockin'. You can see in Rockabilly the precursors of Las Vegas, Liberace, and over-the-top elements of white working class culture. Fins, pompadours, leather jackets, motorcycles, electric guitars. See exhibit A below:
Gene Vincent and his Blue Caps in the studio, mid '50s. These guys are intense.
Neil Young has been the most consistently inconsistent musician out there. Going his own way has often left his fans behind. Its been a struggle for relevance. I sympathize. Getting people to pay attention has been a struggle in my various creative endevours.
Anyway, a Rockabilly album was natural for Young, and he delivered. He made a bizarre and funny video for the single Wonderin'. The only version online is this poor quality one, but its a little better than nothing.
Rockabilly is the forgotten genre of American music. Its an article of faith that Elvis' success came from re-packaging "colored" music for white audiences. I've never agreed, because Elvis was Rockabilly through and through from the beginning. His earliest and best records were made in Sam Phillips' Sun Records studios, the capitol of Rockabilly. The same place that a young Johnny Cash was also making Rockabilly records before he went Country.
Neil Young captured the weird undercurrents in Rockabilly on Everybody's Rockin'. You can see in Rockabilly the precursors of Las Vegas, Liberace, and over-the-top elements of white working class culture. Fins, pompadours, leather jackets, motorcycles, electric guitars. See exhibit A below:
Gene Vincent and his Blue Caps in the studio, mid '50s. These guys are intense.
Neil Young has been the most consistently inconsistent musician out there. Going his own way has often left his fans behind. Its been a struggle for relevance. I sympathize. Getting people to pay attention has been a struggle in my various creative endevours.
Anyway, a Rockabilly album was natural for Young, and he delivered. He made a bizarre and funny video for the single Wonderin'. The only version online is this poor quality one, but its a little better than nothing.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
My Pix
College Street, Toronto - 1988
Kodachrome 200 - 300mm lens
Looking west from the top of the Toronto Hydro Building at Carlton and Yonge. Shows a stretch of College street between University and Bathurst.
Kodachrome 200 - 300mm lens
Looking west from the top of the Toronto Hydro Building at Carlton and Yonge. Shows a stretch of College street between University and Bathurst.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
WW2
Divisional standards on parade. I'm guessing this is the 1934 Nurmberg rally, but it could be anytime up to around 1938. I have no documentary support for that, but its my feeling based on all the photos I've seen. The Germans were good at spectacle. The prominence of these standards at such a propaganda event reflects the totality of Hitler's co-option of the Wehrmacht. The German Army ceased to serve the nation, but rather served Adolf Hitler. This is literal, they took an oath to him, personally. Few officers questioned that oath until defeat was certain.
Here are the same standards on display in Red Square during the Soviet victory parade, June 24, 1945. This parade was remarkable for several reasons, and mostly unknown in the West. More photographs of this memorable day will appear in this series of WW2 posts. While the Germans were good at spectacle, the Russians were good at symbolism.
Here are the same standards on display in Red Square during the Soviet victory parade, June 24, 1945. This parade was remarkable for several reasons, and mostly unknown in the West. More photographs of this memorable day will appear in this series of WW2 posts. While the Germans were good at spectacle, the Russians were good at symbolism.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Crazy Airport Approach
Tegucigalpa, Honduras - Yikes
You want a pilot that's done this before, a lot.
via Cheap Flights Finder
My Pix
Stairs, Sifnos, Greece - 1986
Kodachrome 64 - Contax RTS - I think its the 300mm lens
To the extent I had a unique vision, here it is. Abstract, architectural detail, low, hard, sculpural light, large flat areas, creamy white and blue colors. This is as close as I ever got to a perfect picture.
Kodachrome 64 - Contax RTS - I think its the 300mm lens
To the extent I had a unique vision, here it is. Abstract, architectural detail, low, hard, sculpural light, large flat areas, creamy white and blue colors. This is as close as I ever got to a perfect picture.
WW2
Another in the tense meeting series. These are German troops surrendering to Canadians in Holland on May 5, 1945. They may be surrendering, but these are not beaten men. They still have fight in them and they're armed to the teeth. The Canadians were extremely nervous about last minute complications or misunderstandings. This event was 3 days before the general German surrender, so problems were possible. The Canadians didn't relax until all the weapons these guys were carrying had been secured. The kid on the right edge of the photo looks about 14.
Obama
I just watched Obama speaking live in Jacksonville. He brought tears to my eyes. It was one of the best speeches I've ever seen. He pulled out all the stops in a way I haven't seen before. There is a school of rhetoric developed by Southern US Baptist Ministers. Martin Luther King was its most famous master, but far from its only expert practitioner. Today, Obama used these techniques in Jacksonville to stunning effect. I really want him to win.
------------------ Update
Just watched McCain speaking in Virginia. By far the best speech I've ever seen from him. He started slow and wobbly, but gathered strength and finished on a triumphal flourish. Very impressive, but not in Obama's league. With Obama, I know he's not telling the truth about lowering taxes. With the current US deficits, taxes are going to go WAY up no matter who gets elected. But Obama's lack of truth on this issue doesn't bother me. I feel like he can't afford to be honest or he'll get squewered by the Republicans. They are already hammering him as a socialist. When McCain says he's going to lower taxes, lower energy prices and raise home prices, it sounds like he's out of touch or intentionally lying.
Anyway, its an interesting day to watch CNN. The four candidates are speaking multiple times live today. A political junkie's heaven.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Pix
Heathrow Airport from Google Map s click for bigger - note the concord parked in the upper right corner
WW2
A ponderous pre-war Soviet bomber. This kind of plane didn't stand a chance against decent fighters or flak guns. Neither the Russians, nor the Japanese, nor the Germans were able to field a credible strategic bomber during the war. The British had two, the Americans four. As a result, Japanese and German cities were reduced to rubble. During the entire war, the Luftwaffe managed to kill about 90,000 British civilians. By 1945, Allied bombing was killing more German civilians than that each week. The Americans killed more Japanese civilians than that in a single raid, several times.
On the Eastern Front, air superiority was always a local issue. The front was simply too big to gain anything more than a local advantage. The only exception to this was the pre-emptive strikes carried out by the Germans on June 22, 1941. However, the Red Air Force was useless at that point, and wouldn't have been able to slow the Wehrmacht much anyway. In all, air power never had the decisive impact in Russia that it had in the West.
On the Eastern Front, air superiority was always a local issue. The front was simply too big to gain anything more than a local advantage. The only exception to this was the pre-emptive strikes carried out by the Germans on June 22, 1941. However, the Red Air Force was useless at that point, and wouldn't have been able to slow the Wehrmacht much anyway. In all, air power never had the decisive impact in Russia that it had in the West.
Yap
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Martin Luther King
via Gabriel Robins
Martin Luther King
via Gabriel Robins
The Intellectual Property War: A Turn of The Tide?
Captain Copyright, From a ludicrous and short-lived pro-copyright campaign by the Canadian version of the RIAA - Yes this is real
Two developments in the US legal system last week may indicate a turn of the tide in the Intellectual Property (IP) wars. The first was a significant Federal Court ruling limits what can be patented and invalidates thousands of questionable existing patents. The second was a novel and very persuasive constitutional challenge to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) lawsuit campaign against individual file sharers. As they play out, these two events should mark a significant change in the legal landscape for IP world-wide.
When it comes to IP law, the US leads the world. This is due to several factors. First, the US is by far the biggest exporter of IP. Second, the technology that has changed the nature of IP mostly origionated in the US. Until recently, US internet traffic has been greater than the rest of the world combined. Third, Americans tend to settle things through litigation rather than legislation. So there is always lots of action on the IP front. Lastly, IP is one of the fault lines in the macro development of the post-national world. Briefly, the nation state is becoming obsolete due to globalization. The nation state will not disapear, but it is evolving. There are two competing models to replace it: the EU regional state approach, and the American corporate state approach. IP is a key point of conflict because it represents the tension between corporate and public ownership. Companies want to extend their control over products past the point where consumers make the purchase. Consumers want the opposite (which is ok) and whatever they can get for free via digital distribution (less ok). The ideal world for content creators is when the consumer pays every time they access a particular peice of content. They want content to stay live and open-ended (licensed like software) rather than dead and purchased like a book. The stakes are immense in terms of revenue. But technology so far has trumped the political and legal weapons of content owners.
There are three types of intellectual property under US law, and each is rife with litigation. Trademarks are commercial property and give a company a monopoly on the use of a term in a particular business. I can't start a computer company called Apple. But I can start a tire company called Apple. Apple has trademarked the term for use in the computer business. This is a sensible law that protects both companies and consumers from fraud by third parties. Unfortunately, trademark is now widely used by companies trying to surpress use of names outside their industry, or by people saying things about the company that they don't like. For example, Monster Cables routinely sues anyone that starts any business in the US with "monster" in the name. The test for a trademark infringement is the "idiot in a hurry". Would an idiot in a hurry think your company A is really company B with a similar name? Or would an idiot in a hurry think your effort that mentions company B is actually sanctioned by company B? If so, you are probably infringing. But real trademark infringements are rare, usually restricted to counterfeiters deliberately trying to fool consumers.
Patents are the second type of IP protected by US law. Patents are a time-limited monopoly on the design of devices. Patents are specific and require detailed description. You can't patent an idea. The law has traditionally required devices to be 1) novel, and 2) non-obvious before they can be patented. Patents are granted by a government agency, the Patent Office. One must apply for a patent, providing all the relevant paperwork and support material. A patent examiner goes through the application and either grants or denies the patent. The process is supposed to be difficult because a patent amounts to a government enforced monopoly. Monopolies are good for monopolists, but bad for the public. That's why monopolies like the gas company are heavily regulated. The rationale for patents is that a limited-time monopoly is necessary to encourage the resources needed to invent new technology. Most countries have a very similar regime to the US.
Unfortunately, several things happened to distort US patents. The first was creation of a special court to deal with patent cases. This should have been a good thing, but it didn't work out that way. Some questionable rulings were made, and because the patent court had limited oversight by the rest of the judicial branch, it was difficult to challenge these. Second, one of these rulings was that patents could be granted out not only for devices, but for methods. This ruling allowed patents on software, algorithms, genes and other intangibles. Lastly, the US patent office was underfunded and unable to deal with the flood of patent applications created by the methods ruling. Examiners lacked the expertise to deal with software and the time to look for prior art. So they just granted most applications and let the courts sort out which ones were correct. The result was chaos. It is now widely accepted that the US patent system has broken to the detriment of economic performance. There are so many dubious patents that it is becoming difficult to bring new products to market. It has happened before with the US aircraft industry. It took WW2 to clear the logjam.
Techdirt summarizes last week's Federal Appeals court ruling on the original case that legitimized business concept patents:
The last type of IP covered by US law is the most familiar. Copyright is the limited ability for a content creator to control their creation. It protects the expression of an idea. A story about teenage wizards cannot be copyrighted. A story about a teenage wizard named Harry Potter who attends a school called Hogwarts can. When someone in the US downloads a song or a movie from the Internet, they are infringing copyright. Note that copyright infringement and theft are not the same thing, despite their frequent conflation. Theft deprives the owner of an object, copyright infringement does not. Infringement denies the owner a sale, assuming that the infringer would have purchased the item had they been unable to acquire it illegally.
Obviously, the Internet and digital file-formats have dramatically changed content distribution. Remember when a copy of a copy of a videotape was lousy? That was analogue, every digital copy is exactly the same as the original. The Internet gives people the means to distribute these perfect copies between themselves. The problem for content owners like music companies is that their business model is based on scarcity. If you wanted a song, you had to buy a copy from the record company. They were the only ones who had original high-quality content. Now, everything is different. Rather than adapt to the new situation, the US content industries tried to impose the existing business model on the new world. They successfully lobbied for new IP laws and have used the power granted by these laws to prosecute individuals for infringement. The RIAA has sued over 30,000 individuals in the US. Most settle out of court for some thousands of dollars rather than incur the legal fees required to fight. However, the legal basis for the RIAA's actions is questionable, as are the methods they use to acquire information on individuals they want to sue. In cases that have gone to trial, the RIAA has lost all but one, and that ruling was subsequently put aside by the judge who declared a mistrial. Many in the US legal community are unhappy with the way the RIAA has used the legal system as a bludgeon and look forward to a reckoning.
Apart from the legal problems, the RIAA's approach has been suicidal from a business point of view. Not only have they had zero impact on the number of files being shared, but have covered themselves in negative publicity. That negative publicity on its own has reduced their revenues and created enemies throughout the technology industry. Two years ago, the RIAA switched tactics and began to sue Universities who failed to stop file sharing on their internal networks. This was a promising avenue because students are big file sharers and Universities are unlikely to risk huge fines to protect them. Unfortunately for the RIAA, they are as inept at law as they are at business. Some Universities successfully fought back based on privacy concerns and the questionable tactics of the RIAA at collecting evidence.
Notable among high-profile schools, Harvard has never been sued. This has occasioned comment. The tech press speculated that the RIAA was afraid of their potential counter-attack. They were right to be. Harvard law professor Charles Nesson got tired of waiting and has intervened in an unrelated RIAA action against an individual, Joel Tannenbaum. Nesson has made a novel and devastating constitutional challenge to the entire RIAA legal strategy. The law gives the RIAA a statutory penalty much greater than the market price of the infringed music. They can collect as much as $150,000 for a song that sells for $0.99 at the iTunes store. Typically, they settle out of court for between $500 and $1500 per song. The counter-argument Nesson advances is that the legislation enabling these suits is unconstitutional. It amounts to a criminal law being run by a private entity for its own profit.
Together, these two legal developments promise to revolutionize the landscape for IP law in the US. Many fundamental legal issues remain to be settled, but we can hope that the tide is turning.
Two developments in the US legal system last week may indicate a turn of the tide in the Intellectual Property (IP) wars. The first was a significant Federal Court ruling limits what can be patented and invalidates thousands of questionable existing patents. The second was a novel and very persuasive constitutional challenge to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) lawsuit campaign against individual file sharers. As they play out, these two events should mark a significant change in the legal landscape for IP world-wide.
When it comes to IP law, the US leads the world. This is due to several factors. First, the US is by far the biggest exporter of IP. Second, the technology that has changed the nature of IP mostly origionated in the US. Until recently, US internet traffic has been greater than the rest of the world combined. Third, Americans tend to settle things through litigation rather than legislation. So there is always lots of action on the IP front. Lastly, IP is one of the fault lines in the macro development of the post-national world. Briefly, the nation state is becoming obsolete due to globalization. The nation state will not disapear, but it is evolving. There are two competing models to replace it: the EU regional state approach, and the American corporate state approach. IP is a key point of conflict because it represents the tension between corporate and public ownership. Companies want to extend their control over products past the point where consumers make the purchase. Consumers want the opposite (which is ok) and whatever they can get for free via digital distribution (less ok). The ideal world for content creators is when the consumer pays every time they access a particular peice of content. They want content to stay live and open-ended (licensed like software) rather than dead and purchased like a book. The stakes are immense in terms of revenue. But technology so far has trumped the political and legal weapons of content owners.
There are three types of intellectual property under US law, and each is rife with litigation. Trademarks are commercial property and give a company a monopoly on the use of a term in a particular business. I can't start a computer company called Apple. But I can start a tire company called Apple. Apple has trademarked the term for use in the computer business. This is a sensible law that protects both companies and consumers from fraud by third parties. Unfortunately, trademark is now widely used by companies trying to surpress use of names outside their industry, or by people saying things about the company that they don't like. For example, Monster Cables routinely sues anyone that starts any business in the US with "monster" in the name. The test for a trademark infringement is the "idiot in a hurry". Would an idiot in a hurry think your company A is really company B with a similar name? Or would an idiot in a hurry think your effort that mentions company B is actually sanctioned by company B? If so, you are probably infringing. But real trademark infringements are rare, usually restricted to counterfeiters deliberately trying to fool consumers.
Patents are the second type of IP protected by US law. Patents are a time-limited monopoly on the design of devices. Patents are specific and require detailed description. You can't patent an idea. The law has traditionally required devices to be 1) novel, and 2) non-obvious before they can be patented. Patents are granted by a government agency, the Patent Office. One must apply for a patent, providing all the relevant paperwork and support material. A patent examiner goes through the application and either grants or denies the patent. The process is supposed to be difficult because a patent amounts to a government enforced monopoly. Monopolies are good for monopolists, but bad for the public. That's why monopolies like the gas company are heavily regulated. The rationale for patents is that a limited-time monopoly is necessary to encourage the resources needed to invent new technology. Most countries have a very similar regime to the US.
Unfortunately, several things happened to distort US patents. The first was creation of a special court to deal with patent cases. This should have been a good thing, but it didn't work out that way. Some questionable rulings were made, and because the patent court had limited oversight by the rest of the judicial branch, it was difficult to challenge these. Second, one of these rulings was that patents could be granted out not only for devices, but for methods. This ruling allowed patents on software, algorithms, genes and other intangibles. Lastly, the US patent office was underfunded and unable to deal with the flood of patent applications created by the methods ruling. Examiners lacked the expertise to deal with software and the time to look for prior art. So they just granted most applications and let the courts sort out which ones were correct. The result was chaos. It is now widely accepted that the US patent system has broken to the detriment of economic performance. There are so many dubious patents that it is becoming difficult to bring new products to market. It has happened before with the US aircraft industry. It took WW2 to clear the logjam.
Techdirt summarizes last week's Federal Appeals court ruling on the original case that legitimized business concept patents:
The summary is that the court has said that there's a two-pronged test to determine whether a software of business method process patent is valid: (1) it is tied to a particular machine or apparatus, or (2) it transforms a particular article into a different state or thing. In other words, pure software or business method patents that are neither tied to a specific machine nor change something into a different state are not patentable.Emphasis in original. This is an extremely important ruling. Battles are currently raging in several countries, and the EU over software patents. This ruling will take the wind out of the sails proponents. A significant argument they were making was that local companies would be at a disadvantage if they could not patent things that were patentable in the US. In addition, this should be the end of patent trolls. Companies that buy up patents and sue everyone making something even theoretically similar. Patent law is remote from consumers, being something litigated between companies. However, the number of dubious patents and the aggressiveness of patent holders in the courts has had an enormous impact on product development in the US. This chilling effect has not only retarded development in high-tech. It has had a very dramatic impact in medical, pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries.
The last type of IP covered by US law is the most familiar. Copyright is the limited ability for a content creator to control their creation. It protects the expression of an idea. A story about teenage wizards cannot be copyrighted. A story about a teenage wizard named Harry Potter who attends a school called Hogwarts can. When someone in the US downloads a song or a movie from the Internet, they are infringing copyright. Note that copyright infringement and theft are not the same thing, despite their frequent conflation. Theft deprives the owner of an object, copyright infringement does not. Infringement denies the owner a sale, assuming that the infringer would have purchased the item had they been unable to acquire it illegally.
Obviously, the Internet and digital file-formats have dramatically changed content distribution. Remember when a copy of a copy of a videotape was lousy? That was analogue, every digital copy is exactly the same as the original. The Internet gives people the means to distribute these perfect copies between themselves. The problem for content owners like music companies is that their business model is based on scarcity. If you wanted a song, you had to buy a copy from the record company. They were the only ones who had original high-quality content. Now, everything is different. Rather than adapt to the new situation, the US content industries tried to impose the existing business model on the new world. They successfully lobbied for new IP laws and have used the power granted by these laws to prosecute individuals for infringement. The RIAA has sued over 30,000 individuals in the US. Most settle out of court for some thousands of dollars rather than incur the legal fees required to fight. However, the legal basis for the RIAA's actions is questionable, as are the methods they use to acquire information on individuals they want to sue. In cases that have gone to trial, the RIAA has lost all but one, and that ruling was subsequently put aside by the judge who declared a mistrial. Many in the US legal community are unhappy with the way the RIAA has used the legal system as a bludgeon and look forward to a reckoning.
Apart from the legal problems, the RIAA's approach has been suicidal from a business point of view. Not only have they had zero impact on the number of files being shared, but have covered themselves in negative publicity. That negative publicity on its own has reduced their revenues and created enemies throughout the technology industry. Two years ago, the RIAA switched tactics and began to sue Universities who failed to stop file sharing on their internal networks. This was a promising avenue because students are big file sharers and Universities are unlikely to risk huge fines to protect them. Unfortunately for the RIAA, they are as inept at law as they are at business. Some Universities successfully fought back based on privacy concerns and the questionable tactics of the RIAA at collecting evidence.
Notable among high-profile schools, Harvard has never been sued. This has occasioned comment. The tech press speculated that the RIAA was afraid of their potential counter-attack. They were right to be. Harvard law professor Charles Nesson got tired of waiting and has intervened in an unrelated RIAA action against an individual, Joel Tannenbaum. Nesson has made a novel and devastating constitutional challenge to the entire RIAA legal strategy. The law gives the RIAA a statutory penalty much greater than the market price of the infringed music. They can collect as much as $150,000 for a song that sells for $0.99 at the iTunes store. Typically, they settle out of court for between $500 and $1500 per song. The counter-argument Nesson advances is that the legislation enabling these suits is unconstitutional. It amounts to a criminal law being run by a private entity for its own profit.
Imagine a statute which, in the name of deterrence, provides for a $750 fine for each mile-per-hour that a driver exceeds the speed limit, with the fine escalating to $150,000 per mile over the limit if the driver knew he or she was speeding. Imagine that the fines are not publicized, and most drivers do not know they exist. Imagine that enforcement of the fines is put in the hands of a private, self-interested police force, that has no political accountability, that can pursue any defendant it chooses at its own whim, that can accept or reject payoffs in exchange for not prosecuting the tickets, and that pockets for itself all payoffs and fines. Imagine that a significant percentage of these fines were never contested, regardless of whether they had merit, because the individuals being fined have limited financial resources and little idea of whether they can prevail in front of an objective judicial body.Yikes. If you have any interest, its worth reading the whole thing. Nesson goes on to eloquently demand compensation for Tannenbaum and others targeted by the RIAA based on their abuse of the courts. That could amount to a half a billion dollars. Not something the RIAA's money losing members would care to contemplate. If successful, the argument would also derail the Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) legal strategy. The MPAA has been far more judicious in their use of the courts, but their aims have been similar. Both met the Internet revolution with a counter-revolution via the Congress and the Courts. This may be at an end.
Together, these two legal developments promise to revolutionize the landscape for IP law in the US. Many fundamental legal issues remain to be settled, but we can hope that the tide is turning.
The Mother of Short Squeezes

Last week, the German stock market was roiled due to a clever ploy by Porsche. They engineered the biggest short squeeze in history, and may have used it to purchase a majority stake in Volkswagen at a dramatic discount.
Short selling is a techique for exploiting the stock market to conjure money from nothing. If I believe a stock, say General Motors, is going to decline, I can borrow some GM shares and sell them. Some weeks or months later, I go onto the market and buy enough GM shares to pay back the person I borrowed from. If GM is selling at $10 today, but goes down to $9 when I buy shares to pay back, I get to keep the $1. My total investment = $0, my profit = $1 minus whatever pennies I paid to "rent" the stocks. Why would anyone lend out their stocks in this way? Because if my neighbour owns GM stock and does not plan to sell, then a few pennies per share for lending them out is gravy.
There are three problems with short selling. The first is that if the price goes up rather than down, you are out the difference. If GM goes from $10 to $15, I will lose $5 per share. Because a stock can go up to infinity, my potenital liability is also infinte. For this reason alone, lots of people stay away from short selling. The other problem is that an event can force reconciliation. For example, if a large portion of the target company is bought or sold, if the company has a major revenue event, if the company initiates a large stock buy-back or if a serious issue with the wider market causes stock regulators to change the rules. When an external event causes short sellers to all have to repay the borrowed shares at the same time, you get artificial demand for the stock and the price goes up. This is a short squeeze, and the short sellers lose their shirts because they have to buy no matter what the price.
The third thing wrong with short selling is that it is very unpopular. Short sellers are the scavengers of the financial world. The CEOs of companys targeted by short sellers hate them with a passion. The practice seems to embody everything that is wrong with financial markets. Profiting off the misery of others, making money out of thin air, complex games of music chairs where normal rules don't seem to apply. Short sellers trade in bad news and rumour, doing anything legal (and sometimes not legal) to poison a company's reputation. The only reason they are tolerated by regulators is that they perform an essential function. Short sellers help to keep the market honest and companies in line. Any bit of bad news a company holds back becomes a potential opportunity for short sellers. Nowhere are short sellers more disliked than Germany. Germany is all about making and selling things, they don't like speculators for historical and cultural reasons. They especially don't like foreign speculators in the form of hedge funds.
All of this sets up Porsche's power play. They already owned 42.6% of Volkswagen. How a tiny sport-car company was able to buy 42.6% of the world's third largest car company is another story. Last Sunday, Porsche dropped a bombshell. They announced that via complex derivatives deals, they had secretly aqcuired another 31.5% of the company. Porsche's total stake was now 74.1%. The government of Lower Saxony owns 20.1%, so the outstanding public shares dropped to just under 5.8%. Volkswagen had been a popular short among international hedge funds and short sellers. The total number of stocks shorted amounted to 13% of the total stock. That means some of the people who lent stocks to short sellers had secretly pledged them to Porsche via derivatives. When Porsche announced the news, all the short sellers had to liquidate their positions. Since 13% is a lot bigger than 5.8%, there were a lot more buyers than sellers. The price of Volkswaqen share went from €210 on Friday to €1,000 on Monday. The biggest short squeeze in history.
Presumably, some of the people that held the outstanding 5.8% of the shares held on to them. So where did all the shares come from that were sold to liquidate the short's positions? Probably from Porsche. They sold shares into the short squeeze and then bought them back later when the bloodbath was over. Porsche should have paid about about €14.8 billion for the 31% stake. If they did sell into the short squeeze, they may have netted out at closer to €5 billion, with the short sellers inadvertently providing the rest. NOTE: Porsche's profit from the short squeeze is my speculation.
In North America or Britain, Porsche's secret accumulation would have been illegal. But it has been done before in Germany. Porsche's interest in buying more of VW is well known, and they have been uncharacteristically quiet about it for months. The short sellers knew, or should have known, that they were playing with fire. Although Porsche's actions are very close to the legal borderline, and possibly over, nobody in Berlin is in a mood to do anything about it. A senior German politican's reaction was to call the short-sellers "locusts". It seems that much of the German financial community was involved, at least passively, in a sting designed to hurt primarily foreign speculators and profit German industry.
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