Long-time readers will be familiar with my claims that the US Military likes to start offensive operations in the dark, i.e. around a new moon. As the last quarter of the current moon is waning, its time for an update on a potential attack against Iran.
The key question is: where are the carriers? They need a minimum of two but three would be better. Last month, it looked like there would be three in the area, at least for a while. The tip-off was to be the Lincoln. Would it go home after being relieved by the Reagan, or would it hang around? It's headed for San Diego and is currently in the Pacific. The Roosevelt was also scheduled for deployment, and still is. But it hasn't left the Atlantic. Those pesky Russian naval vessels visiting Venezuela may be giving the Navy second thoughts. In any case, a second carrier in the Arabian Sea would be useful for expanded US operations in Afghanistan. So the appearance of the Roosevelt, sudden or otherwise, is not necessarily cause for alarm. In any case, current US Navy deployment suggests no all-out attack on Iran is planned during the approaching lunar darkness window.
As alert readers may have already noted, US policymakers have their hands full with other business. Similarly, Israeli leaders are pre-occupied with political matters. The temperature of anti-Iran rhetoric has thus cooled considerably in both Washington and Jerusalem. In addition, the strategic situation has shifted noticeably with Afghanistan and Pakistan taking center stage. Nobody in their right mind would attribute problems there to the Iranians. Lastly, an IAEA investigation into a Syrian "reactor" bombed by Israel last year has turned up no evidence of any nuclear activity. Russia, China and Germany all publicly noted this development. One can be sure others noted it too, but were too polite to say anything. This is a major hit to US credibility. Coming after the Georgian fiasco and war that isn't with Pakistan, enthusiasm among US allies for more adventures is likely thin. Even if they were enthusiastic, friendly capitals are busy with keeping the US debt contagion out of their banking systems.
So, no war this month. Unless something really bad happens in the US next month, it looks like the whole operation is off, at least until after Israeli elections. After a certain point, it no longer makes sense.
