The first rule of statesmanship is: Don't get into unnecessary wars. If you break rule 1, then go to to rule 1a: Make sure you win the war.
Georgian leader Mikhail Saakashvili has broken both rules in his four day old war with Russia. The Georgians have obviously been preparing this war for some time. However, there is no reason for this war besides Georgian calculations that they had better try their chances before George Bush leaves office. They apparently expected the "big bad Russians vs. the heroic underdogs" to play well in the Western Media. But, having embarked upon this unnecessary war, they immediately lost it. Joshua Trevino points out that the one strategic task for the Georgian army is blocking the road from Tskhinvali through the mountains to Russia. The best Georgia could hope for would be a stalemate in the mountains until the inevitable cease-fire. Remember that while everyone was paying attention to Stalingrad in the fall of 1942, the Red Army fought the German's main force to a draw in these mountains.
Despite having the advantage of surprise, and no organized opposition for the first day, Georgia failed to block the road. Its not even clear they tried very hard. They didn't even secure the airport at Tskhinvali. By the second day, Russian tanks were pouring through the pass and paratroopers had flown into to Tskhinvali. Game over. Having sought to avoid an early intervention by the UN, Georgia is now claiming they have withdrawn from South Ossetia and are very keen on a cease-fire.
The Georgian's plan didn't work. They expected the West in general and NATO in particular, to intervene politically and stop a slow Russian counter-attack. That would hopefully freeze their forces in place, in control of Ossetia. They miscalculated, and by killing Russian peacekeepers on the first day, guaranteed a swift Russian response. The Russians were clearly expecting the war. You don't just happen to have a brigade of tanks deployed, fueled-up, crewed-up and ready to roll on a remote road in the mountains.
At this point, there are only two questions: 1) how much will Russia punish Georgia?, 2) what, if anything, will the West do about it? The answer to the first question is probably "as much as they like". Having chased the Georgians out of Ossetia, the Russians can pick apart the Georgian military at their leisure with GPS guided bombs. The answer to the second question should be "nothing". Georgia is squarely within the Russian sphere of influence. NATO has no business discussing anything more important than the weather with Georgia. Besides, the less International pressure the Russians face, the less need they will feel to disregard it, the sooner they will lay off attacking Georgian military assets outside Ossetia. Its unlikely the Russians will carry the war into Georgia proper and risk lots of civilian casualties. The Georgians started this war, let them deal with the consequences.
Besides the usual news outlets, I used the following sources for this story:
Gary Brecher
Joshua Trevino
Mark Ames
