The Iran War (of Words)

How GWB sees the Iraq War

There has been an unprecedented war of words between Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran over the last few months. I can't remember such an undignified and childish exchange even back in the Cold War. These people are talking about war, with potentially millions of casualties. But it sounds like trash talking 16 year olds on Call of Duty.

[USA]GWB: U N00b

AhmadineJIHAD: Ura fukn N00b

[USA]GWB: fuk u up

AhmadineJIHAD: try it lusr

someambitiousisraelipolitician: fuk u up rl bad

someambitiousisraelipolitican: fukin nook u

0lm3rt: stfu about nookz
[USA]GWB: lol

[USA]Condi: put a lid on it boyz r we'll get kicked

AhmadineJIHAD: u fag

someambitiousisraelipolitician: ura fag

ADMIN: User AhmadineJIHAD kicked 24hrs for abuse: "fag"
AhmadineJIHAD disconnected

ADMIN: User someambitiousisraelipolitican kicked 24hrs for abuse: "fag"
someambitiousisraelipolitician disconnected

[USA]GWB: lolz buh bye sandnigger!

ADMIN: User [USA]GWB banned permanently for abuse: racial term "nigger"

[USA]GWB disconnected
[USA]Condi: Admin you can't ban GWB he's president of the USA

ShootinPutin: lol Condi u N00b the admin is a bot

ShootinPutin: yr talkin to a bot

[USA]Condi: stfu

[EastIsRed]Blu-Hu: lol

In reality, I think the war of words signals intense struggles among pro and anti war factions in both Washington and Jerusalem. We can't see the infighting, but occasionally we hear a boom. The Iranians are happy to lob unrealistic threats everywhere as it helps to shore up Ahmadinejad's unpopular government.

My best guess at this point, based on nothing more than speculation and rumors, is that the White House, the VP's office, the Air Force and some factions in the Defense Department are for an attack. There is also support among the GOP on the Hill. On the other side, I believe the Army is unenthusiastic, the CIA opposed, the Navy negative and the State Department hostile.

As far as the struggle in Jerusalem, I can't read Israeli politics well enough to analyze the factions. However, I get the impression that the split between pro and anti is more factional and less along institutional lines. Also, the anti-war people in Israel are keeping very quiet. That doesn't mean there aren't any.

In any case, the best strategy for all the anti-war factions is to run out the clock. Olmert is too shaky politically to push through an attack against significant internal opposition. Assuming there is significant internal opposition. Likewise, every day that passes weakens Bush's mandate for a unilateral attack. There are only so many operational windows. Something like the minor fire on the carrier George Washington can put key assets out of commission during several of those windows. And then the windows will be gone.

Israel could still make a conventional strike against Iran, drawing the US into the conflict. However, Israel does not have sufficient assets to complete the job. From a PR point of view, the US having to finish the job would be a disaster. All the Arab governments that would publicly condemn and privately applaud a US attack against Iran would go apeshit if it was the Israelis. The Arab reaction could be more of a set-back than any response the asset challenged Iranian military could come up with.

Its also important to keep in mind that there are furious back-channel talks going on all over the place. There are separate and uncoordinated discussions involving the Iranians, Russians, UN, US, Israelis, British, EU, French, Syrians, Quataris and probably others. Just about the only people not talking directly are apparently the Israelis and Iranians. That we know about.

So keep talking, boys. There will be no action as long as they are yapping. Its when things go quiet that I worry.