A story in today's New York Times claims: "The militia that was once the biggest defender of poor Shiites in Iraq, the Mahdi Army*, has been profoundly weakened in a number of neighborhoods across Baghdad, in an important, if tentative, milestone for stability in Iraq". They suggest that one of these neighborhoods is Sadr City.
I'm not buying it. Muqtada al-Sadr (known as "Mookie" by US troops) is the master of tactical retreat. He's done it several times before to great effect. The thing about a good tactical retreat in these conditions is that it looks similar to a loss. That's the point. Its an elaborate playing at possum. Of course, tactical retreat does not bring victory. But it can bring survival. And that, in Iraqi politics for 3 generations, has been the name of the game. Al-Sadr survived Saddam, so its not like he's new at this. He's made a career of being underestimated.
Gary Brecher argued in early July that al-Sadr had sensibly gone underground, adopting the successful model of the IRA after the British Army demolished their no-go zones in 1972. The main consideration being that if the US was prepared to use air strikes against Sadr City, the Mahdi Army was doomed in the streets. Best to get off the streets. And now the NY Times is noting their absence as a major development.
More wishful thinking from the US Embassy in Bagdhad I think. Its not outright false propaganda, its just that they continue to percieve the situation in unrealistically positive terms. Conditions continue to improve. Things will go on improving until the day the US Army leaves Iraq. Just as they did in Vietnam. Muqtada al-Sadr will probably still be around to see them off.
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*The Mahdi Army is the militia of the Sadr Movement, al-Sadr's political party. It, like Sadr City is named after his father, not him. The other main Shiite party is The Supreme Iraqi Counci (SIIC). Their militia is the Badr Brigades, aka the Iraqi Army. The only other militia worth noting specifically is that of the al-Fadilih party, a strong regional political party in Basra. There are many other smaller and splinter militia, particularly among the Sunni.
Curiously, the SIIC has been mentioned only 17 times in the last year in the NYT. The Badr Brigades only 3 times. The Mahdi Army, by comparison, has been noted 167 times. The NYT has some credibility problems when it comes to Iraq. They have done little to alleviate their humiliation over pre-war reporting of WMD. Its not like they can send reporters freely around in Baghdad. They move only with the assistance of the US and Iraqi armed forces and do not have sufficient independence to reclaim their credibility.
