Saturday, October 25, 2008

Iran War: October Update

USS Teddy Roosevelt - F18 catapult launch - U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Michael Cole
With all the extrordinary economic, political and military news in October, its easy to forget about the war that wasn't.  We are within a few days of a new moon and thus one of the last windows of opportunity for George Bush to attack Iran.  The  Roosevelt has finally appeared in the area (after months of dawdling), joining the Regan in the North Arabian Sea.  Faithful readers will recall that two carriers are necessary for an attack on Iran.  However, Somali pirates and expanded military activity in Afghanistan also justify a second carrier in the area.  There's been a quiet drum-beat of Iranian criticism from both Washington and Jerusalem, but both are pre-occupied with domestic issues.  Absent a direct Iranian attack, no political justification exists for US action.  With the economic meltdown and two unpopular wars already, a new war would not go over well with the US electorate.  I'm pegging the chance of a war this month at zero.